🌊 The Art of the Mineral Deal

There are more homeless people in Denver than in all of Japan… by a factor of 3.

We were looking up global homeless statistics — as one does on weekends in late February — and couldn’t believe Japan’s numbers. In a country of 123M people, officials estimate a homeless population of ~3,000. We then compared that number with those of top US cities and… wowzer. Denver, sorry to pick on you, but we had to choose somebody and your airport is way too far from your downtown. Plus, you’re way too elevated.

–Max and Max

KEY STORY

Mineral Deal Reached

The US and Ukraine reached a deal to grant the US access to Ukraine’s natural resources as repayment for military aid

• The US and Ukraine reached a natural resource deal

• Ukraine has reserves of oil, gas, and 20 rare minerals the US deems “critical” to its economy and defense. Trump had spent recent weeks pushing to take significant control of these resources; Zelensky had resisted

• On Tuesday, Ukraine agreed to a deal that would see the US jointly develop Ukraine’s natural resources and energy reserves. The agreement, to be finalized when Zelensky visits DC on Friday, was less favorable to the US than the initial one Trump demanded

• The deal does not include US security guarantees, but officials suggested a large financial interest in Ukraine will incentivize the US to defend the country

Dig Deeper

• The agreement establishes a fund into which Ukraine would direct 50% of its earnings from the “future monetization” of its state-owned resources. The fund will then invest in projects in Ukraine

• The US’ stake in the fund has not yet been revealed and will likely be a topic of discussion during negotiations this week

• Ukraine’s deputy prime minister said, “We have heard multiple times from the US administration that [the minerals agreement] is part of a bigger picture”

KEY STORY

Record Crypto Hack

North Korean hackers appear to have stolen $1.5B of ethereum in what is likely the largest single crypto heist in history

• Cyber heists fund up to half of North Korea’s missile program, with the government’s hackers stealing at least $1.34B worth of crypto across 47 incidents in 2024

• On Friday, hackers, apparently from North Korea, exploited security weaknesses on the crypto exchange Bybit to direct $1.5B of Ethereum to their wallet address

• Bybit’s CEO has assured customers their assets are safe and said the company would give 10% of recovered funds to anyone who helps retrieve the stolen crypto

Dig Deeper

• Bybit – which says it remains liquid with $20B in assets – said it plans to "fundamentally transform" its security infrastructure following the breach and would work with officials to try to recoup the funds

• Despite the company saying it would refund all affected users, the incident triggered over 350,000 withdrawal requests from depositors

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KEY STORY

RFK: Most Popular Politician?

A new Harvard/Harris poll found that President Trump has a +9 approval rating while approval of the Democratic Party is at the lowest level on record

• 52% of respondents approve of Trump’s job, with the highest approval for his border policies. 77% of respondents said they want a full examination of all government expenditures and 52% said DOGE should have access to information on all government expenditures, although 58% said DOGE shouldn’t have access to Americans’ sensitive information

• The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has record-low approval ratings and the country’s politicians with the highest unfavorability ratings are all Democrats including Joe Biden (-24), Eric Adams (-18), and Kamala Harris (-14). RFK Jr.’s is the highest (+9)

Dig Deeper 

• Respondents were split on tariffs: 62% of voters believe tariffs will raise prices of everyday goods while 57% say they are an effective foreign and economic policy tool

• Voters were also split on some of Trump’s foreign policy proposals, with 70% saying the US taking over Gaza is a bad idea, 57% opposing the Trump Administration forcing Ukraine to make territorial concessions to end the war, and 66% saying Ukraine should receive security guarantees if it were to make concessions

KEY STORY

Migrants to Register?

The Trump Administration is preparing a registry of all immigrants

• Per a leaked memo, the registry will require illegal immigrants 14 and older to submit fingerprints and home addresses to a federal database

• Qualified immigrants who fail to register would face up-to-$5,000 fines and up-to-six-month prison sentences

• Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem wrote in a memo attached to the plan, “Aliens in this country illegally face a choice…They can return home and follow the legal process to come to the United States or they can deal with the consequences of continuing to violate our laws”

Dig Deeper

• While registries have been used in the past – one was used to identify suspected communists during the 1940s; another required men and boys from numerous Muslim-majority countries to register after 9/11 – the news sparked concern among many Democrats and immigration activists

RUNDOWN
Some Quick Stories for the Office

📉 Border Patrol reported a 94% decrease in southern border crossings last month compared to the previous year, with agents apprehending just 285 migrants in January daily versus 4,800 in 2024

🇺🇸 Vivek Ramaswamy announced his candidacy for Ohio governor with Trump's endorsement, positioning him as an early favorite in next year's Republican primary

📱 At least nine states have proposed bills requiring app stores to handle age verification for minors downloading apps – a win for app-makers, who don’t want to verify ages themselves

🦠 Authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo said that an “unknown disease” has infected 431 and killed 53

💳 The Trump administration floated plans to create a new “gold card” visa that would grant green card privileges and a path to citizenship for wealthy foreigners who invest more than $5M in the US

What does Roca Nation think?

🧠 Yesterday’s Question: Should Roca call the body of water to the west of Florida the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of America?

🧐 Today’s Question: Let’s lighten up. Tell us a fun fact about your home town (or any town you’ve lived in).

Reply here with your answer!

POPCORN
Some Quick Stories for Happy Hour

⚖️ Diddy’s Lawyer Wants Out: Sean “Diddy” Combs’ defense attorney, Anthony Ricco, filed to withdraw from representing him, stating, "Under no circumstances can I continue to effectively serve as counsel"

🚂 Welcome Back, Wild West: Thieves have pulled off at least 10 train heists in the Arizona desert since last March, stealing over $2M in Nike sneakers during one theft in January

💍 No Ring, No Job: A Chinese company told employees they'd be fired if they weren't married by September, telling employees to “resolve [their] personal marriage issues” and describing single workers as "disloyal" and ignoring "the national call" to have families

💊 Bad Hair Day: A Colombian man was caught attempting to smuggle cocaine to Amsterdam when police discovered the drug hidden under his wig at the airport in Cartagena, Colombia

🏀 Woj Bombs for NIL: Former ESPN NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski is auctioning off his professional memorabilia – including the phones he used to break major NBA news – to raise NIL funds for St. Bonaventure's basketball program, which he now coaches

ROCA WRAP
Peace At Last?

Senegal

One of Africa's longest-running separatist conflicts has ended in this country.

Unlike many of its neighbors, Senegal has been a relatively stable democracy since it achieved independence from France in 1960. The country has been mostly at peace in that period, except for a prolonged rebellion in its southern Casamance region, which is separated from Dakar, the capital, and northern Senegal by The Gambia, an independent country.

This week, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko announced a landmark peace deal with the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC), ending a struggle that began in 1982 and sought independence for Casamance. The agreement was brokered by neighboring Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo after three days of negotiations.

The conflict, egged on by neighboring countries, revolved around feelings of economic and political neglect in Casamance. While it claimed thousands of lives over four decades, the conflict saw a marked decline in violence in recent years.

The path toward peace accelerated after the removal of The Gambia’s dictator, Yahya Jammeh, in 2017. In 2023, at least 250 separatist fighters surrendered their weapons.

The agreement brings hope for economic revival in Casamance, a region rich in agricultural resources that lacks the infrastructure of northern Senegal. Perhaps with peace at hand, the region once known as Senegal's “breadbasket” can pick that moniker back up.

ROCA VIDEO
Inside America's Lawless Border Zone

We traveled along the USA-Mexico border, where immigration, smuggling, and law enforcement collide. Our journey took us to the Anarpa Gap, a notorious smuggling route, where we spoke with locals, business owners, and a militia to understand the situation firsthand.

EDITOR’S NOTE
Final Thoughts

Our inbox was once again flooded, and we thank you. You all have been on a heater lately, and the range in answers has been fascinating. The Roca community’s political diversity helps us stay militantly nonpartisan: If we were to lean one way, we’d lose a huge chunk of our base. Of course we have no villainous masterplan to lean one way, but unlike other news orgs we have no incentive to lean one way.

Happy hump day.

–Max and Max