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- 🌊 Isn't Xi Lovely? China Traps Teachers
🌊 Isn't Xi Lovely? China Traps Teachers
Plus: First high school trans survey, Martin Scorsese on retirement, and more!
Why didn’t we give Milton his stapler back?
Our prayers are with the Roca readers in the Tampa Bay area. Hurricane Milton is barreling toward the coast with an expected landfall as a Category 3 hurricane tonight. As we wrote two weeks ago for Helene, we try not to dwell on bad news at Roca, but we know that this bad news affects so many of you. It is painful to see images of wreckage from Helene still piled up on the side of Tampa area roads, knowing that an even stronger storm will unleash worse damage. We hope Tampa takes hope and inspiration from western NC, whose communities — thanks to people like Katie — have come together in a spectacular way.
💸 Will Trump or Kamala increase deficit more?
📈 New high school trans survey
🦝 Giant raccoon invasion
–Max and Max
KEY STORY
Who Will Blow the Deficit More?
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) – a nonpartisan group that calls for lower deficits – released its projections as to how each candidate’s platforms would affect the deficit
The US debt-to-GDP ratio is currently around 100%, meaning the government’s outstanding debt is comparable to the size of the US economy
Such levels of debt are unheard of for the US outside of war time: Between 1966 and 2008, it never exceeded 70%
The CRFB projects that Harris’ administration would expand the deficit by $3.5T and Trump’s by $7.5T
Dig Deeper
What exactly are the candidates' spending and tax plans? That's the subject of today's Wrap. See the bottom of this newsletter
KEY STORY
China: Teachers Can’t Leave
China’s government is preventing teachers from leaving the country
In a new report by the Financial Times, over a dozen people within China confirmed that teachers have been ordered to turn in their passports in order to prevent them from traveling abroad. The system – known as “personal travel abroad management” and long applied to mid- and high-ranking Communist party officials – has now been expanded to low-level public sector workers, including teachers
“All teachers and public sector employees were told to hand in our passports,” one primary school teacher told the FT. “If we want to travel abroad, we have to apply to the city education bureau and I don’t think it will be approved”
Dig Deeper
China’s government has an education system that seeks to instill the Communist Party ideology in students. Official documents show the government is worried that exposure to foreign countries could render teachers less-inclined to indoctrinate their students
Moving forward, teachers will have to apply with their schools to travel and be restricted to one trip of less than 20 days per year
Teachers who refuse to hand in their passports or who travel without permission would be subject to “criticism and education” and potential charges
ROCA’S SPONSOR
Who Will Win the Election?
Kalshi, a platform that lets you bet on real-world events, has resumed taking wagers for the 2024 presidential and congressional elections
The platform – the first legal prediction market in the US – lets you bet on who you think will win the White House, as well as who will win control of the House, how interest rates will move, who will win at the Oscars, and more
Let’s walk through a market and place a trade on the outcome of the election: Say you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win. You can buy them winning for 50 cents. So you can buy 100 shares at 50 cents each, so that’s $50 for 100 shares. If you are right, you will double your money and get $100 back
You can also sell early: If their odds of winning go up to, say, 70%, you can sell for $.70 each and lock in $70. And even if you don’t want to trade, you can still look at live odds on Kalshi to see who the market thinks is most likely to win the race
KEY STORY
Crash Scene Investigation
The European Space Agency (ESA) launched a spacecraft and two satellites to analyze the aftermath of NASA’s DART mission
NASA’s DART mission – the first test of Earth’s planetary defense system – launched a spacecraft at an asteroid to change its trajectory. It made impact with the celestial body in September 2022
While DART is believed to be a success, the ESA’s follow-up will analyze the exact results, including whether the DART spacecraft just left a crater or completely reshaped the asteroid
The ESA’s spacecraft is expected to arrive in 2026
Dig Deeper
The ESA's spacecraft and satellites will also analyze Mars' moons on their way to the asteroid
While scientists don’t expect any asteroid capable of threatening life on Earth to show up in the next 100 years, a smaller body may come close enough to cause harm in the relatively near future
KEY STORY
New High School Trans Survey
Per a new survey from the CDC, 3.3% of US high school students identify as transgender and 2.2% as questioning
The 2023 survey was the CDC’s first to ask teenagers in all schools whether they identify as transgender. It found that the transgender and gender-questioning teenagers reported higher rates of bullying, depression, and suicidal thoughts
~70% of transgender and questioning students reported feeling persistent sadness or hopelessness for a period of more than two weeks in the past year, compared with half of cisgender girls and 26% of cisgender boys
Dig Deeper
In recent years, the share of LGBTQ young people has soared: Per a 2024 Gallup survey, 22% of Gen Z adults (ages 18-26) identify as LGBTQ. Among Gen Z women, the rate is 28.5%. Among all US adults, the share of people identifying as LGBTQ is 7.6%, double what it was a decade ago
RUNDOWN
Some Quick Stories for the Office
🏆 The Nobel Prize in physics went to two AI pioneers who are credited with paving the way for machine learning
🇮🇱 Israel deployed another division to northern Israel, boosting the number of troops involved in that conflict, and announced that the successor to former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is “probably” dead
🇺🇦 Kamala Harris declined to say whether Ukraine should have NATO membership, saying, “We will deal with [that] if and when it arrives at that point”
📺 The Wall Street Journal reported that internal Democratic polling suggests Kamala Harris is struggling to gain support among working-class Midwestern voters
🧑🏫 A new study by the Congressional Budget Office found that the US deficit was $1.8T in 2024
COMMUNITY
🧐 Yesterday’s question: What are more likely to exist: Ghosts or aliens?
Definitely ghosts or spirits. Most recent encounter was 2 nights ago.
Not always scary but this was.
Genuine account.
Believe it.
No evidence of aliens but yes for spirits.
Aliens are more likely to exist. It's ridiculous to think Earth is the only planet with intelligent life.
Definitely ghosts! I know people who have seen a ghost; none that have seen (knowingly) an alien.
🧠 Today’s question: What is the main reason religion has declined in America over the last 50 years? (Doing a video on it and want to hear your thoughts)
POPCORN
Some Quick Stories for Happy Hour
🦝 Raccoon takeover: 100+ raccoons invaded a Washington woman’s home after she consistently fed them for 35 years
👮 Well, she’s qualified: A UK woman who runs an addiction support charity has been arrested three times for drunk driving in the past two years
❌ “So how bad was your husband?”: An Indonesian man was arrested for allegedly selling his 11-month-old baby on Facebook to fund an online gambling spree. His wife learned of the spree when she returned home and found their baby missing
St. John the Divine’s annual blessing of the animals in NYC. Why does someone in NYC have a camel??
🎦 “I’M NOT F****G LEAVING!”: Martin Scorsese said he has “no intention of retiring” despite delays to two potential blockbusters he’s working on, one of which is about the life of Jesus and the other about Frank Sinatra
🏎️ Europe vs. the Cybertruck: Campaigners in Europe are attempting to stop the arrival of Tesla Cybertrucks on their roads. Among other things, the activists argue that the vehicles exceed the EU’s 3.5-ton weight limit for “light vehicles”
ROCA WRAP
Spending and Taxing: The Candidates’ Plans
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) – a nonpartisan group that calls for lower deficits – released its projections for how each candidate’s platform would affect the deficit.
The US currently has around $35T in outstanding debt. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is around 100%, meaning the government’s outstanding debt is roughly the size of the entire US economy. Such levels of debt are unheard of for the US outside of wartime. Between 1966 and 2008, it never exceeded 70%.
Per the CRFB, neither candidate will reduce the debt. In fact, both will increase it by trillions.
Trump
Trump’s economic plan includes extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), passed by his last administration; exempting overtime, social security, and tips from taxation; cutting corporate taxes for some companies; and expanding military-, border-, and some social-related spending. Most of this would be funded by borrowing, although Trump plans to boost government revenues through tariffs and some government cuts.
In total, the CRFB projects that Trump’s plans would cost the government a collective $10.2T between 2026 and 2035, while increasing its revenues by $3.7T. After interest, CRFB projects a net impact of $7.5T in added debt.
Harris
Harris’ economic plan includes expanding the TCJA for families making under $400,000; expanding tax credits for families and middle-class earners; exempting taxes from tips; and expanding government funding for healthcare, housing, and education. Her plan seeks to boost revenue through higher taxes on corporations, capital gains, and other investments, while providing more funding to the IRS for taxation enforcement, among other technical changes.
In total, the CRFB projects that Harris’ plans would increase costs by a collective $7.25T between 2026 and 2035, while increasing revenues by $4.25T. After interest, CRFB projects a net impact of $3.5T.
Pay it Back, With Interest
Higher deficits lead to higher interest payments: The US is projected to spend a record $892B on interest payments in fiscal year 2024. This figure is projected to exceed $1T for the first time next year and potentially $1.7T by 2034. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the US will spend $12.9T in interest payments alone over the next decade.
For both candidates, the biggest potential expense is the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the extension of which would cost ~$3T under Harris and ~$5.4T under Trump.
Does the debt concern you? Who will have to pay this off and how? We’re curious to hear your thoughts. Reply to this email to let us know.
EDITOR’S NOTE
Final Thoughts
For the record, more Americans believe in aliens than ghosts. A recent survey found that 65% of Americans believe in intelligent life beyond Earth, while closer to 40% of Americans believe in ghosts. One of you wrote in, “I believe in alien ghosts.” So maybe there’s a third category.
Also, appreciate all the kind notes about those of you who say we should ignore the hate mail when we cover politics. Lucky to have the community we have.
–Max and Max