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🌊 We Live to Trade Another Day
Plus: Immigrant population plummets, Spaniard takes over Ikea, & California's great Labubu theft
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25 years ago today, a generation learned to say hola.
You might think this is an ordinary Thursday in your life, but it’s not: It’s the 24th anniversary of the premiere of “Dora the Explorer.” Dora taught millions of kids how to count in Spanish, say the alphabet in Spanish, and count bananas hovering over bushes — a highly practical skill. Although we don’t know what happened to Dora after her show ended in 2019, but we have a high degree of confidence that Swiper got a job at CNN. Or perhaps more aptly… Fox News.
🤝 US-China trade truce
📉 US immigrant population plummets
💰 The great Labubu theft
–Max and Max
KEY STORY
US-China Trade Truce
The US and China extended their tariff truce for another 90 days
The two countries reached a preliminary agreement in May after negotiations in Geneva, which reduced tariffs from their April peaks. That initial 90-day truce locked in a 30% US tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% Chinese tariff on American goods
On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order extending the pause until November 10. Without the extension, US tariffs on Chinese goods would have jumped to 145%, while Chinese tariffs on American products would have reached 125%
The extension provides breathing room for American retailers preparing for the holiday season
Dig Deeper
Trump told reporters on Monday that the US had been "dealing very nicely with China," though he pressed Beijing on Sunday to quadruple its soybean purchases. The president also suggested he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the year's end if the countries reached a broader trade agreement
Before the May agreement, both countries had threatened duties exceeding 100%, which would have created a virtual trade embargo between the world's two largest economies
KEY STORY
Trump-Harvard Deal
Harvard University and the Trump Administration are close to finalizing a $500M settlement that would restore funding to the university
The Trump Administration has pursued settlements with multiple universities over allegations of antisemitism and diversity practices. Harvard saw its funding frozen earlier this year amid accusations of antisemitism and disputes over policies
Under the developing agreement, Harvard would pay $500M toward workforce and vocational programs rather than directly to the federal government. The university would avoid having a government-appointed monitor oversee its compliance, a key demand from Harvard to preserve academic independence
Dig Deeper
The deal would allow Harvard to continue receiving federal research money while still extracting a substantial payment from the institution
Harvard insisted throughout negotiations that any settlement must not compromise academic freedom, while the administration sought commitments on issues including antisemitism prevention and data transparency
The university would also pledge to continue following federal regulations on merit-based hiring and admissions while protecting students' civil rights
ROCA’S SPONSOR
Former Zillow exec targets $1.3T
The top companies target big markets. Like Nvidia growing ~200% in 2024 on AI’s $214B tailwind. That’s why the same VCs behind Uber and Venmo also backed Pacaso. Created by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso’s co-ownership tech transforms a $1.3 trillion market. With $110M+ in gross profit to date, Pacaso just reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
I’m a man without any ambition, except to be champion of the world
KEY STORY
IKEA’s New CEO
IKEA announced that a Spanish executive would become the first non-Swedish CEO to lead Ingka Group, IKEA’s parent company
Swedish entrepreneur Ingvar Kamprad founded IKEA as a teenager, and the company had always been led by Swedish executives. Ingka Group operates 88% of all IKEA stores across 31 countries
On Wednesday, Spanish executive Juvencio Maeztu was announced as the successor to Jesper Brodin, who has led IKEA for eight years. Maetzu started his IKEA career in 2001 as manager of a store outside of Madrid
Maeztu faces immediate challenges, including potential US tariffs and maintaining competitive pricing after the company reported a near-halving of net profit to €800M last year
Dig Deeper
"I am fully determined to make IKEA grow and to really be relevant for many millions more consumers around the world," Maeztu told Reuters, while acknowledging that tariffs would make it more difficult to keep prices low
The incoming CEO plans to start his tenure by embarking on a "listening tour" of IKEA stores worldwide, as he develops his growth strategy
KEY STORY
Immigration Decline
New government data suggests the US' immigrant population fell by approximately 2M people during the first six months of 2025
The US experienced a significant surge in migration under the Biden Administration, with more than 7M people immigrating between April 2020 and June 2024. President Trump promised to reverse this trend and deport 1M immigrants in his first year
This week, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the foreign-born population dropped by 2.2M between January and July 2025, the largest six-month decline within the same year since 1994, when the Current Population Survey (CPS) began to regularly ask about citizenship status
The data shows that the decline occurred entirely among non-citizens, while naturalized citizens increased by 373,000
Dig Deeper
Researchers at the Center for Immigration Studies called it a fundamental change in immigration patterns, noting they had never seen such a dramatic reversal
Some analysts cautioned about the survey's reliability. The CPS samples only 60,000 households monthly, compared to 2M for the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey
Some research organizations noted there was no other current data that could confirm such an enormous decline, while other analysts suggested immigrants might be reluctant to respond accurately to government surveys, potentially leading to undercounting
RUNDOWN
Some Quick Stories for the Office
🇮🇱 Israeli ministers criticized IDF chief Eyal Zamir, with some demanding that Netanyahu fire him over disagreements about Israel’s Gaza strategy
🇭🇹 The US charged Haitian gang leader Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier and North Carolina resident Bazile “Fredo Pam” Richardson with conspiring to violate US sanctions
✋ President Trump warned of “very severe consequences” if President Putin doesn't agree to a ceasefire at their Friday meeting in Alaska, while signaling plans for a follow-up summit with President Zelensky
🪙 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Surveillance the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by at least 1.5 percentage points, suggesting that a 50-basis-point cut should begin in September
🇺🇸 While speaking at the Kennedy Center, President Trump stated that he would seek congressional approval for the federalization of DC police for a period longer than the original 30 days. However, Trump also warned he could bypass Congress through an emergency declaration if Democrats oppose his crime legislation
What does Roca Nation think?
🤖 Yesterday’s Question: Do you believe AI will have a net positive or negative effect on society over the next 20 years?
It will absolutely be a net negative. Of course, there will be plenty of break thoughts, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say that lives will be saved in ways not possible before. But at what cost? To dilute the experience of the human intellect, and to mute awareness of the natural world is a horrendously high price to pay.
I work in tech, and I've been loving all of the AI-related questions!
I feel like AI is inevitable - nothing I do will change the course we're already on, AI is here to stay, and the rate of change means the world 20 years from now will be radically different from what it is today.
The biggest thing for me is AGI, which most of these AI companies are racing to be the first to create. This is, in my opinion, the tipping point - this isn't an LLM, this isn't ChatGPT, this is a fully autonomous being, one that will think and communicate in ways we don't understand. At that point, it's anyone's guess - maybe it'll take a protective, almost motherly view of us humans, and we'll be ushered into a golden age where humans and machines can work together. Or, we might get Skynet. All options are still on the table, right? We have no way of knowing which way this will play out, and yet it seems like we're tripping over ourselves racing to this end goal regardless.
Since it's inevitable, I prefer to remain optimistic. Let's say AGI is friendly, and works with humans to further speed up research & development for diseases, clean energy, robotics, sustainable agriculture, and so on. We could enter a golden age of humanity, one where everyone's basic needs are met, where there's enough food, shelter, and space for everyone to have a happy, fulfilled life.
I'm being overly optimistic here, but honestly, what's the harm? If it's coming for us either way, I'd rather focus on the glass-half-full scenario than losing sleep over a robot apocalypse I can't do anything to stop.
I'd be curious to hear what you guys think (and I'm very excited to read the replies tomorrow!!)
I am very concerned about the use of AI and tech in general for authoritarian goals, given the Dark Enlightenment-Technocratic ideology among those in control of the government and all the tech companies trying to cozy up. It seems like they’re trying to explore its use for nefarious purposes, particularly mass surveillance and suppression of free expression. I think it will ultimately be a net negative if only the wealthy and powerful are able to weaponize it.
It seems there are two factors that would be underlying here, the first being how malicious will people be with ai, whether that's in the jobs market, or government surveillance, or phishing, and the second what sort of potential will ai reach, as in are there going to be robots walking along side the average person? Is human advancement going to go off the rails?
Id like to be the optimistic one and say that as much as there are malicious people that want to do damage there are more who want to fix the world, and yeah, if ai is already making huge progress is so many different fields, it's almost absurd to think that ai could go net negative
🧐 Today’s Question: Do Gen Zers and Millennials deserve to be resentful of Baby Boomers for the economic reality they’ve inherited?
POPCORN
Some Quick Stories for Happy Hour
🧸 Labubu Larceny: California police recovered $30,000 worth of stolen Labubu dolls this week after two teenage warehouse workers pilfered the popular collectibles over several days
🏆 Honor Roll: President Trump announced five Kennedy Center honorees spanning music, stage, and film, including country artist George Strait, disco icon Gloria Gaynor, rock band Kiss, Broadway star Michael Crawford, and actor Sylvester Stallone
♖ Checkmate: Ten-year-old Bodhana Sivanandan from London has become the youngest chess player to earn the Woman International Master title and the youngest female to defeat a grandmaster
🖥️ GTA or GTFO: Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick expressed “very, very high” confidence that Grand Theft Auto 6 will meet its May 26, 2026 release date
🚗 Clutch Crisis: Two Oakland, CA women allegedly carjacked a couple at gunpoint but couldn't drive the manual transmission vehicle, forcing them to kidnap the husband as their getaway driver
ROCA WRAP
Right to Die
Uruguay
This South American nation's parliament voted to legalize euthanasia, joining a handful of Latin American countries embracing assisted dying.
Uruguay has established itself as one of Latin America's most socially progressive nations, having pioneered the region’s legalization of gay marriage, abortion, and recreational cannabis use. The country of 3.3M people has often broken from the conservative traditions of predominantly Catholic Latin America to embrace liberal social policies, exemplified by a recent bill on euthanasia.
On Wednesday, Uruguay’s lower house of parliament approved the assisted dying bill by 64 votes in the 99-seat chamber following an overnight debate. The legislation now advances to the Senate, where passage this year is widely expected. Under the proposed law, mentally competent adults with terminal or incurable illnesses would be able to request medical euthanasia.
A crucial amendment helped secure support from wavering lawmakers by requiring a medical board review when two doctors disagree on a case. One legislator emphasized the personal nature of the decision, stating that the request "respects the free and individual will of the patient, without interference, because it concerns their life, their suffering, their decision not to continue living."
The national debate gained momentum in 2019 when Fernando Sureda, former head of Uruguay's football association, publicly advocated for the right to die after being diagnosed with a degenerative disease. His high-profile campaign helped shift public opinion, with polls now showing widespread support for euthanasia, including backing from the country’s president.
Uruguay joins Cuba, Colombia, and Ecuador as Latin American countries that have legalized some form of assisted dying. The move also aligns Uruguay with countries like Canada, Spain, and New Zealand that have embraced similar legislation.
In a predominantly Catholic region of the world, Uruguay continues to break from the norm.
EDITOR’S NOTE
Final Thoughts
Max F is editing this newsletter from Canada, where the public is not too happy with their southern neighbors. So far, five people have called for Trump to be shot; two have said they support him; and a handful have said they liked him at first, but not after the tariffs.
One thing is clear, though: The “51st state nonsense,” as some Canadians have called it, has made the country rally around the flag. Canadian flags are now everywhere, supermarkets label Canadian-made goods, and stores have “buy Canada” promotions going.
We’ll be writing about all this and more in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for that, and thanks for reading today’s newsletter.
–Max and Max