🌊 The RocaNews Presidential Endorsement

The RocaNews Endorsement.

We’ve been receiving hundreds of messages and emails from readers asking us to issue an endorsement in today’s election. People on both sides have told us that we must do so because peace, democracy, and the economy are on the line.

So after days of debate locked in our office, we decided…

…that a news company endorsing a presidential candidate is one of the stupidest things they can possibly do. Media trust is at an all-time low and you couldn’t concoct a better way to reduce it. While it’s true that journalists and editorial – who issue the endorsements – aren’t the same, they are linked and perception is reality. It’s also true that outlets have issued endorsements for centuries, however, times have changed. Partisanship is more intense, the media is more biased, and people have more independent access to information. So rather than endorsing a candidate, we’ll endorse a few ideas:

• Putting facts before ideology

• Having news companies that ask questions rather than regurgitate political lines

• Encouraging debate rather than shutting it down

And most importantly…

• News companies letting readers make up their own minds.

Tonight we will be livestreaming on YouTube from 8 PM onward. We will be reacting to live results, taking call-ins from swing state voters, giving away $100 to callers who nail the final electoral college count, and playing clips from across the country.

If you want to call in during the show, please email us with your phone number and state – we’ll get in touch!

–Max and Max

KEY STORY

Battle for the Senate

Senate control will be decided on Tuesday

• The map is favorable to Republicans, who will almost certainly pick up a seat in West Virginia, where Dem. Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. That would mean Republicans need to flip one more seat to take control

• The most vulnerable Democratic incumbent is Sen. Tester in Montana. Dems are also defending in toss-up races in Ohio and the "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania

• Democrats appear to be leading in Arizona and Nevada, though, and Republicans may be performing worse-than-expected in Texas and Nebraska, although polls show they still lead in those states

Dig Deeper

• Democrats see Texas as their best pickup chance, with Representative Colin Allred (D) running stronger than Beto O'Rourke did in 2018 against Senator Ted Cruz (R)

• Nebraska has emerged as an unexpected battleground, with independent Dan Osborn trailing Senator Deb Fischer (R) by just two points in recent polling

KEY STORY

Battle for the House

Control of the House is a complete toss-up

• As every two years, all 435 House seats are up for election. Polling suggests that it’s a dead heat, with the outcome of some 40-45 close elections likely deciding control

• Republicans have more safe seats, however, of the 43 closest races, Democrats appear to lead in 13 and Republicans in eight. A further 22 are considered toss-ups

• According to 538’s modeling, Democrats win control in 51 of 100 simulations while Republicans win in 49 of 100

Dig Deeper

• As with the last two presidential elections, polling ahead of the 2016 and 2020 House races understated support for Republicans

• Real Clear Politics’ average generic congressional poll had Democrats winning by .6 and 6.8 points, respectively – 1.7 and 3.7 points better than they actually performed, while polling in 2022 was roughly accurate

• Control may end up being decided by how the presidential candidates perform and, therefore, how many down-ballot votes they secure for their party colleagues

ROCA’S SPONSOR

Stop Whining, Start Winning

Together With Kalshi

Election day is upon us, and Kalshi’s betting market shows a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

• As of Monday evening, Trump had a 54%-46% lead over Harris, significantly narrower than his 65%-35% lead a week ago

• Kalshi allows you to bet on real-world events – from the 2024 elections to the weather – and shows you real-time odds for the events

• It is the US’ first legal prediction market and has full approval from the federal government to take bets on the 2024 elections

• Place your bets on the general election, popular vote, and individual states. Or, if you merely want to track the live odds as the day unfolds, head there, too

KEY STORY

Joe Rogan Endorses

Joe Rogan endorsed Donald Trump for president

• The endorsement comes days after Rogan had both Trump and J.D. Vance on his podcast and hours after he released an episode with Elon Musk. Rogan invited Kamala Harris to do an interview but she declined. He last endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2020

• On the podcast, Musk claimed that everything the Democrats have already done everything they are saying Trump will do – weaponizing the justice system, spreading misinformation – and predicted that a Harris administration would try to shut X down

• Rogan endorsed on X, quote tweeting the Musk episode and writing, “If it wasn't for [Elon Musk] we'd be fucked. He makes what I think is the most compelling case for Trump you'll hear, and I agree with him every step of the way. For the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump. Enjoy the podcast”

KEY STORY

The Tap Water Debate

Donald Trump said he is considering eliminating fluoride from drinking water if elected president

• The CDC says fluoridated drinking water improves dental and overall health. The Americas and Australia generally fluoridate water while Europe does not

• The US started fluoridating water in the 1900s. RFK – who calls the chemical a “poison” – claims this was just a convenient way for oil companies to dispose of artificial fluoride, an industrial processing byproduct

• This September, an RFK-linked group won a seven-year lawsuit against the EPA that will require it to take action against fluoride levels in US drinking water

Dig Deeper

• The Obama-appointed judge who oversaw the case cited an August 2024 NIH study that found “higher levels” of fluoride are linked to lowered IQs in children

• Some agencies have contested the NIH's findings

KEY STORY

The Final Numbers

As of Monday evening, the polls, betting markets, and election forecast models show a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

• The RealClearPolitics polling averages show Trump ahead in Arizona (+2.7), Nevada (+1.0), Pennsylvania (+0.3), North Carolina (+1.5), and Georgia (+1.7). Kamala Harris leads in Wisconsin (+0.4) and Michigan (+0.6)

• If averages hold, Trump will win. If Kamala flips Pennsylvania, for example, she will win the election 270-268

Dig Deeper

• Polling guru Nate Silver projects a virtual tie in the electoral college, with Harris winning 50.015% of simulations and losing in 49.985%; 538 has Harris winning in 50 of 100 simulations and Trump in 49; The Economist’s model had last-minute shifts toward Harris in all swing states, giving her a 56% chance of winning

• The betting markets have more faith in Trump: Kalshi gives him a 58% chance and Polymarket a 63% chance

RUNDOWN
Some Quick Stories for the Office

🇺🇸 New York Times tech workers began striking a day before Election Day, potentially impacting the paper's digital election coverage tools

🇺🇸 Following controversy over Vice President Kamala Harris's appearance on "Saturday Night Live" the night before, NBC aired a free 90-second Trump campaign ad during NASCAR and NFL broadcasts on Sunday

🇬🇧 UK officials announced that university tuition fees in England will increase next year for the first time since 2017, potentially rising to £9,500 ($12,300) in October 2025 from the current cap of £9,250 ($12,000)

🎵 Legendary music producer Quincy Jones died at 91. Jones produced Michael Jackson's "Thriller," the best-selling album of all time, among many other famed records

🇺🇦 Ukraine said its troops engaged North Koreans in combat for the first time. The fighting took place in western Russia’s Kursk region, parts of which are under Ukrainian control

COMMUNITY

🗣️ The Big Question

POPCORN
Some Quick Stories for Happy Hour

💊 Bad Medicine: A University of Miami medical school professor was arrested for allegedly trafficking a date rape drug known as "coma in a bottle"

🇮🇪 Trick, No Treat: Thousands of Dubliners lined the streets for a nonexistent Halloween parade after a Pakistan-based events website mistakenly advertised the event by copying and pasting last year's parade information into this year's calendar

🪳 Bug in the System: An Ontario woman is seeking $20,000 in compensation from her public housing landlord after having a cockroach surgically removed from her ear

👰 ‘Till Health Do Us Part: A Malaysian man has gone viral after divorcing his wife of seven years who had cared for him through six years of paralysis following a car accident. The man married another woman just one week later

🐐 GOAT Settlement: California’s Shasta County has agreed to pay $300,000 to settle a federal lawsuit after deputies seized and butchered a 9-year-old girl's pet goat, Cedar

ROCA WRAP
5 Election Takeaways

Since June, we’ve spent nearly two months traveling across five swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina. We’ll save our predictions for who will win, but we will leave you with five takeaways that we expect to affect the election result.

First: Many Americans are struggling economically. Yes, the “data show” that the economy is doing well, unemployment is low, and inflation has come down. But people everywhere say that their incomes have not kept pace with the rising prices of groceries, rent, and other basic necessities. Meanwhile, they see the stock market continue to climb, dreams of home ownership slipping away, and America sending billions of dollars to Ukraine and Israel.

A lot of people are voting for the candidate they think will put more money in their pocket. 

Second: Many people believe democracy is on the ballot. We heard this more commonly from Harris voters, but people on both sides repeatedly claimed that if the other side wins, the US will no longer have free and fair elections. On the left, people pointed to January 6 and Trump’s description of his political opponents as “enemies within.” On the right, people pointed to the alleged threat of liberals controlling all major institutions: Government, Big Tech, academia, and the media.

Fear of the other candidate is getting both sides out to vote. 

Third: We couldn’t have a political conversation without hearing his name. Harris’ – not so much. Even many people who plan to vote for her didn’t mention her in conversation or say why they liked her. Instead, they pointed to Trump, the alleged threat posed by him, and their support for progressive policies more broadly. Meanwhile, many Trump voters like Trump specifically. Many told us they wouldn’t vote for a Republican if it weren’t Trump.

People are voting for and against Trump. 

Fourth: Over and over again, we heard young men – of all races and backgrounds – say that Trump is the leader they trust to keep America out of wars, reduce illegal immigration, fix the healthcare system, and stop the advance of allegedly anti-male progressive values. Young women repeatedly told us that Trump is a misogynist who threatens women’s and minority rights, democracy, and stability. The word we heard men most commonly use to describe Trump was “funny”; for women, it was “scary.”

Young men overwhelmingly support Trump and young women overwhelmingly support Harris. 

Fifth: Trump supporters overwhelmingly consider the 2020 election to have been rigged. Some take the J.D. Vance line that it was rigged by Big Tech and the media, who allegedly suppressed and slanted coverage to benefit Biden; others take the “MAGA” line, that the election was directly stolen by fake ballots, fraudulent voting, and rigged machines. Trump voters told us this means they need to make his victory “too big to rig,” while others told us the fraud allegations were pushing them to vote for Harris. 

Trump voters are skeptical the election will be fair. 

Who will win is anyone’s guess, but we’ll be shocked if these insights don’t play a role in the outcome. 

What are we missing? Reply to this email to let us know!

Roca Video
We Asked Appalachians Who They’re Voting For

We visited Appalachia to understand the issues that matter before the 2024 election. We actually saw three different sides and three different parts of the Appalachia region: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

EDITOR’S NOTE
Final Thoughts

Make sure to subscribe to our channel so that you’ll see our election livestream on your YouTube home screen. We tee off from the Roca studio at 8 PM EST. Email us if you’re in a swing state and would like to call in!

As we reflect on our election journey with you, we feel sentimental — but also hopeful. America will still be here tomorrow, and so will the millions of amazing people that live in this country (we’ve met so many on our travels this year). This isn’t the scene in The Titanic when the violinists say, “Gentlemen, it’s been an honor” as the ship goes down. The country is resilient, and we’ll get through this okay.

–Max and Max