🌊 Gen Z Lying About Their Vote?

This election is getting squirrely!

Last weekend, it was a roast comedian that stirred up the race; this weekend, it was a squirrel. “Peanut the squirrel” became a social media star after his caretaker rescued him seven years ago. After receiving anonymous complaints, New York officials raided the caretaker’s home and euthanized Peanut. They also killed Peanut’s housemate Fred the raccoon. Trump has seized on this story as a sign of governmental cruelty and overreach. Is Peanut Gen Z’s Harambe? Can Peanut flip the election? Or has everyone just gone… nuts?

–Max and Max

KEY STORY

$30M on Trump

A Frenchman has bet $30M+ on Trump to win

• The man – who goes by Théo – has made the bets on Polymarket, a predictions platform

• The bets have prompted allegations of election interference – Democrats have said he’s trying to boost Trump by moving odds in his favor – but Théo told the WSJ his interest in the election is purely financial

• Théo said his bets are based on polling: He believes the polls underestimate Trump's support, as they did in 2016 and 2020, and said he has “not seen anything substantial” to suggest the polls will be more accurate this year. He cited the "shy Trump voter effect" – people reluctant to tell pollsters they support Trump – and said, “I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that”

Dig Deeper

• Théo told the Journal that his bets constitute the majority of his liquid assets

• He could lose most or all of his $30M if Harris wins and earn $80M+ if Trump wins both the popular vote and electoral college

KEY STORY

Who’d You Vote For?

Per a new Axios survey, nearly half of Gen-Z voters – and 25% of US voters overall – have lied about who they voted for or plan to vote for

• 48% of Gen-Z voters lied to someone close to them, vs. 38% of millennials, 17% of Gen-Xers, and 6% of boomers. Analysts say the hyper-polarization of politics throughout the lifetime of Gen-Z voters has made them more likely to lie about their vote

• The CEO of the polling group said that younger Americans brought up in the smartphone age are more conflict-averse in physical settings, which could impact the viability of polling

Dig Deeper

• The changes come as Pew data shows that both Republicans and Democrats increasingly view not only the other party in an negative light, but also the people in those parties

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KEY STORY

TGI Foreclosed Day

Restaurant chain TGI Fridays filed for bankruptcy on Saturday, with the company's chairman saying it has not fully recovered from the pandemic

• TGI Fridays was founded in 1965 and grew rapidly in the 1970s and 1980s. It claims to have invented the loaded potato skin

• In recent years, TGI Fridays has been closing stores in the US. It operated 292 locations last year, 11% fewer than in 2021. Revenue has declined even faster

• Of those 292, 39 locations are company-owned. The chain's franchised operations, which are independently owned and operated, are not part of the bankruptcy

Dig Deeper

• Two private equity firms, TriArtisan and Sentinel Capital Partners, have owned the chain since 2014

• Bankruptcy filings by restaurant chains and operators this year are on track to hit the highest levels in decades outside of 2020, per BankruptcyData.com

• Other casual-dining restaurant chains that have filed for bankruptcy this year include Red Lobster and Tijuana Flats

KEY STORY

Iowa Shock Poll

One of the most anticipated polls of the election cycle showed Harris leading Trump by three points in Iowa

• One of the country’s most respected pollsters, Ann Selzer, releases a poll of registered Iowa voters the Saturday before each presidential election. While Iowa isn’t expected to be a swing state – Trump won it by 8 points in 2020 – it’s seen by many as a proxy for how the candidates are faring nationally and the “gold standard” of polling

• The poll released Saturday showed Harris leading by three points, 47-44

• Analysts are divided over how much weight should be given to the poll. A different poll released the same day showed Trump leading by 9

Dig Deeper

• Polls by Selzer in June and September, respectively, had shown Trump leading Biden by 18 points and Harris by four

• When factoring in Selzer’s poll, most prediction models still have Trump winning the state. After the poll, Nate Silver, one of the most prominent political analysts, had Harris’ odds of winning Iowa increase from 9% to 17%

RUNDOWN
Some Quick Stories for the Office

🇮🇱 Israeli special forces entered deep into Lebanon by sea and seized a Hezbollah operative in an unusually bold raid. Separately, Israeli troops said they seized a man with links to Iran during a raid into Syria – the first time they’ve acknowledged entering the country during the current conflict

🇪🇸 Angry Spaniards heckled and threw eggs and mud at Spain’s royal couple as the death toll in devastating floods continues to rise

🇺🇸 A judge scheduled New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ corruption trial to begin in April 2025

🇮🇷 Iran’s supreme leader vowed retaliation for Israel’s recent strikes on the country, suggesting the countries’ tit-for-tat cycle of violence will continue

🇺🇸 More than 75M Americans have already voted – nearly half of the total ballots cast in 2020

COMMUNITY

🧐 Today’s question: We’re finally here. Who do you think wins tomorrow? Why?

POPCORN
Some Quick Stories for Happy Hour

🇬🇧 Hair Today, Gone Tomorrow: A British court banned a 33-year-old serial shoplifter from wearing wigs after she used various hairpieces to disguise herself while stealing from stores from which she had been banned

🇺🇸 A Pod Night’s Sleep: A San Francisco company offering $700 monthly "sleeping pods" has received 300 applications for its 17 remaining beds

🇸🇬 A Family That Cleans Together…: A Singapore family court granted mutual protection orders between two siblings after a bizarre dispute where a sister repeatedly entered her brother's room late at night to clean it over eight years, leading to his hospitalization for mental distress and eventually an assault incident

🚲 Cycle of Justice: Japan has introduced strict new laws that could jail cyclists for up to six months or fine them ¥100,000 ($655) for using mobile phones while riding, and give them up to three years in prison for cycling under the influence of alcohol

🇲🇽 Pyramid Scheme: A PhD student accidentally discovered a massive ancient Mayan city in the Mexican jungle while browsing Google search results

ROCA WRAP
Social Shutdown

Mauritius

This island nation has banned social media ahead of elections.

A small island nation in the Indian Ocean, Mauritius is known for its pristine beaches, being the home of the now-extinct dodo, and having a relatively stable democracy. Home to 1.2M people, the country has built a reputation as one of Africa's most prosperous and politically stable nations since gaining independence from Britain in 1968.

Allegedly to protect that stability, the country’s government has ordered all internet service providers to suspend access to social media platforms from November 1 to November 11, spanning the upcoming parliamentary elections.

The unprecedented move comes in response to a wiretapping scandal that saw recorded conversations of politicians, at least five well-known journalists, and business leaders published on social media.

Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth's administration claims the social media ban is essential to protect national security and the country's integrity. The Information and Communication Technology Authority directed the shutdown after the government declared the leaks constituted a serious threat to public safety.

Major network providers have already announced compliance with the directive, warning users their experience will be "progressively disrupted." Yet others have raised questions, including whether a ban is less about stability and more about ensuring that Prime Minister Jugnauth wins a second term in power.

Roca Video
The Candidate More Billionaires Are Backing

2024 is, in many ways, the election of the billionaires. With Elon Musk and Bill Ackman on one side and Bill Gates and Mark Cuban on the other, Trump and Kamala are on track to raise record levels of money this cycle. But who has more billionaires backing them? And which billionaires are still on the sideline? This video investigates and reveals the biggest donors to each candidate.

EDITOR’S NOTE
Final Thoughts

Tomorrow we’re going to be livestreaming analysis, conversations with swing voters, and our behind-the-scenes coverage on YouTube as the election results come in. Details to come.

Hope you had a great weekend.

–Max and Max