🌊 Good Day to Be a No. 2 Pencil

PLUS: I’m Just a (War/Border) Bill

February 06, 2024

If you think a sand trap is rough


Try hitting a moon ball. On this day in 1971, astronaut Alan Shepard became the first person to play golf on the moon. Using a six-iron he smuggled onto the spacecraft, he tried to hit a golf ball off the lunar surface. The first two swings failed to make contact, the third he shanked, and the fourth he hit, sending it "miles and miles.” “Mark me down as a one,” we imagine he told his astronaut pals on the walk back to the shuttle.

P.S. Just seeing that Toby Keith passed away following his battle with stomach cancer. RIP to a country music legend.

In today's edition:

đŸ’” New $118B bill in Congress

đŸ» Florida bears on crack?

đŸ€” Roca's Weekly Debate

And so much more!

–Max, Max, Jen, and Alex

KEY STORY
Standardized Tests Return

Dartmouth will once again require applicants to submit standardized test scores

  • Many universities dropped test requirements during the pandemic and never reinstituted them because of the belief that such tests perpetuate inequality

  • Last week, Dartmouth professors submitted study results that suggested standardized tests are strong predictors of college success, and that other metrics – such as high school GPA – do not produce greater diversity in admissions. It also found that test-optional policies inadvertently hurt less-advantaged students by emphasizing admissions criteria biased toward higher-income students

  • In response, Dartmouth announced it will reinstate standardized testing requirements for applicants

Dig Deeper

  • The study found that Dartmouth students admitted without SATs placed at the 30th percentile of first-year students on university exams – in other words, those who didn’t submit SAT scores ended up in the bottom third of their class

  • “Our bottom line is simple: we believe a standardized testing requirement will improve – not detract from – our ability to bring the most promising and diverse students to our campus,” Dartmouth’s dean of admissions wrote

KEY STORY
Famine Threat in Ethiopia

International organizations are warning of a potential famine in Ethiopia

  • From 2020 until 2022, a civil war devastated much of northern Ethiopia, creating near-famine conditions. That war ended over a year ago, but its continued effects plus a drought are causing food shortages that could now develop into a famine. On Monday, the UK warned Ethiopia is nearing a “humanitarian catastrophe”

  • Ethiopia has suffered several of the worst famines in modern history, including one that left up to 1.2M people dead in the 1980s. Some are drawing comparisons between that and current conditions

Dig Deeper

  • Famines have helped bring down at least two Ethiopian governments. Whether for that reason or others, Ethiopia’s government has intensely denied growing reports of food shortages, calling comparisons to the 1980s “completely wrong.” While foreign countries are pledging growing amounts of aid to hungry Ethiopians, Ethiopia’s government has maintained that “the information that the drought has escalated to famine is unfounded”

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KEY STORY
Like a Moth to a Flame

Per a new study, insects that appear to be attracted to lights at night are actually disoriented by them

  • Many insects exhibit a tendency to to tilt their backs toward bright lights. That is an instinctual response designed to keep them oriented toward the brightest light in the sky, i.e., the Sun during the day or the Moon at night

  • Per a new study published in the journal Nature Communications, due to that effect, insects keep their backs tilted toward artificial lights at night. That causes them to travel at perpendicular angles around lights, leading to their circular motions

  • The researchers said the insects are essentially disoriented, causing them to fly in erratic directions around artificial lights

Dig Deeper

  • “The main takeaway from our study is that flying insects don’t inherently know which way is up,” the study’s first author told Roca. “Instead, they estimate this using the direction light is coming from”

  • “During both night and day, wherever you are, the sky is almost always brighter than the ground
However, if the light you think is the sky is actually a streetlamp over to one side, you’re going to tilt away from vertical. This tilting creates asymmetries in the directions of your flight forces, and misdirects you into the looping, orbiting patterns we see in insects near light”

KEY STORY
Border, Ukraine Bill Proposed

US senators introduced a $118B bill to improve border security, fund Ukraine and Israel, and more

  • The bill would give $60B in military assistance to Ukraine; $14B in security assistance to Israel; $10B in humanitarian assistance to civilians in Palestine and Ukraine; and $2.4B for Red Sea security efforts

  • It would also allocate $20B to border security and require the president to shut down the border if daily illegal crossings over a week exceed 5,000. Some Republicans – including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell – support the bill. Trump blasted it, making its path through the US House difficult

Dig Deeper

  • The Senate plans to vote on the bill on Wednesday. Even if it receives the 60 votes needed to pass there, it faces a tough path ahead in the House, whose pro-Trump speaker said, “Any consideration of this Senate bill in its current form is a waste of time.” He added that the bill “is dead on arrival”

RUNDOWN
Some Quick Stories for the Office

👑 King Charles III, age 75, has cancer, Buckingham Palace said in a statement on Monday. The malignancy was detected while the King underwent a procedure. It’s unclear what type of cancer it is

🇹🇩 Canada will require its provinces to reduce international student permits by 35% in 2024 and 2025. Canadians have blamed high-paying foreign students for pushing up housing costs in some cities

💰 A consortium of Russian investors bought Yandex, widely known as “Russia’s Google,” in a $5.2B deal. It’s the biggest sell-off a Russian company since the war in Ukraine began nearly two years ago

👼 Police arrested rapper Killer Mike minutes after he won Grammys for best rap album, best rap song, and best rap performance. They charged him with misdemeanor battery

đŸ•”ïž Nikki Haley applied for Secret Service protection, saying she’s had “multiple issues.” Among other incidents, security tackled a woman trying to rush Haley on stage last week

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COMMUNITY
Weekly Debate

We’re trying something new this week.

Most news companies repress ideas they don’t agree with. We are different. To prove it, we’re making this a place where people can have a free and open debate. Each day, we’re asking readers to respond to other readers’ responses. Those are located below the Wrap.

This week’s discussion:

Is technology advancing too quickly? Who should set the pace?

Some initial thoughts:

Mike M from Port-au-Prince, Haiti: “It's no one's job or duty to control the advancement of technology. Some people may feel the need to stifle advancements due to either fear or moral complaints, ( Stifling AI, or  stem cell research for example) but it's not up to  nor should it be up to any specific person or group to choose whether or not scientific advancements occur. Humanity will move on regardless, and the only thing that can stop the advancement of our knowledge is the same thing that makes the rules in the world today. Whichever one of us has the biggest stick.”

Brantly from Washington State: “To be honest, I'm not really sure if technology is advancing too quickly. There definitely seems to be some scary things about AI that I am not okay with and very hesitant to get involved with. At the same time, there are so many medical breakthroughs, scientific discoveries and just assistance with everyday life that it's hard to argue. I am sure though, that the ultra rich, ultra powerful businessmen and policy makers profiting off of these things should not be the ones setting the pace. Their desire for profit often outweighs the desire for safety, proper failsafes and long term planning..”

Do you agree with Mike and Brantly? What other thoughts do you have? Respond by replying to this email! More replies are below the deep-dives.

Today's Poll:

Do you trust the government to regulate technology?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Answers to Friday’s poll and question are below the Wrap.  

POPCORN
Some Quick Stories for Happy Hour

🐑 Baaaaaad to the Bone: NYPD officers rescued a sheep wandering Brooklyn’s streets. The sheep is reportedly now headed to a New Jersey animal sanctuary for permanent placement

🏆 Grammy’s back? The Grammy’s on Sunday night averaged 16.9M viewers, marking a 34% increase from last year’s show and making it the most-watched Grammys ceremony since 2020

💾 Deepfake fraud: Hong Kong scammers allegedly used deepfake technology to impersonate a company’s CFO and other staff members to swindle ~$25.6M during a video conference

🏀 LeCuttingEdge: The NBA unveiled a cutting-edge full-video LED court for All-Star Weekend 2024 at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium. It reportedly mimics the bounce and feel of wood

đŸ» Crack bear: Florida state congressman Jason Shoaf advocated for looser regulations on wildlife killing, claiming that black bears high on crack are invading and destroying homes

🩼 Dog > taxi driver: A service dog guided a blind Canadian senior home after a taxi driver left him stranded

ON-THE-GROUND
Roca in Liberland

We send our co-founder Max Frost to investigate topics around the world and he writes about them here. He’s currently writing from Liberland. Subscribers receive the full stories.

From Banja Luka, Bosnia, a bus took me an hour to the border with Croatia. In pouring rain, we got out and walked through a nearly mile-long traffic jam of cars waiting to cross. The Bosnian authorities stamped our passports and we crossed a bridge over the Sava River into Croatia, where Croatian authorities stamped me in. 

I had assumed there would be a town with taxis or buses to get further into Croatia. But there was nothing – we were in the middle of nowhere. Standing in the rain for two hours, I tried to flag down cars headed to any Croatian town or city. In the end, a Croatia border guard came out and told me to leave. I said I was stuck and she gave me a number for a taxi company located 30 minutes away.

Croatia – unlike Bosnia – is in the EU. It’s a much more Western-oriented and prosperous country, at least on paper, with far higher living standards. After Bosnia, I was ready for the change. 

It never came. 

Croatia has wealth, but it’s in the capital, Zagreb, and on the coast, which attracts millions of tourists annually. Eastern Croatia, where I was, is rather desolate. On a three-hour drive to our destination, we passed a handful of towns and one city. For each of those settlements were numerous abandoned, bombed-out, and bullet-hole-riddled buildings, just like in Bosnia. 

My destination was Osijek, a city around 15 miles from Croatia’s border with Serbia and Liberland. Despite being Croatia’s fourth-largest city, Osijek’s population is just 97,000 and was a ghost town on a Saturday night. Some buildings in the city center were still riddled with bullet holes. I commented on that to someone I met in the city, saying, “I would think Croatia has the money to fix this.”

The person responded, “It’s not a money issue, it’s a population issue.”

Croatia’s population is shrinking by .47% each year – a rate almost 20% steeper than Japan, a country known for its depopulation – which gives it the world’s 10th-fastest-shrinking population. Like in Bosnia, people don’t have kids, the country doesn’t attract migrants, and its people leave for wealthier countries. The last problem is particularly acute because as an EU member, Croatians can live and work freely in wealthier places, like Germany and Austria.

Beyond facing those headwinds, Osijek suffered war in the 1990s and has since seen an exodus of its residents to Zagreb and the coast in search of better living and jobs. After peaking at 128,000 in 1991, its population has since fallen by 30%.

But one group of people is moving in the opposite direction, from places like Paris and London to Osijek. These are the Liberlanders, and the next day they would tell me why.

ROCA WRAP
Person of the Week: Punxsutawney Phil

Everyday we take a deep dive into an interesting story, place, or person. Subscribers get full access.

On Friday, the world’s most famous groundhog did not see his shadow.

Groundhog Day has its roots in the ancient Christian tradition of Candlemas, which marks the conclusion of the Christmas-Epiphany season. Germans traditionally marked Candlemas (February 2) as "Badger Day.

According to folklore, if a badger emerged from its den and observed its shadow, a prolonged winter would follow; if not, spring would arrive early. German settlers in Pennsylvania adapted this tradition to their new environment, substituting the badger for a rodent native to the state: The groundhog.

They observed the first official Groundhog Day in the US in 1887 in the small town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, about 85 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

That year, on February 2, Punxsutawney residents trekked to Gobbler's Knob, a small hill in the town, to watch a groundhog – Phil – emerge from his burrow. 137 years later, the annual pilgrimage continues – and Phil has become an international celebrity.

Last year, Roca visited Punxsutawney on the big day to learn more about Phil. We received a special invitation from Punxsutawney Groundhog Club Inner Circle – the group of 15 men responsible for carrying on the tradition and caring for Phil.

The Inner Circle is exclusive to Punxsutawney residents and taxpayers, and membership comes with a unique title, like “Thunder Conductor” or “DayBreaker.”

Roca met with AJ Derume – “Rainmaker” – who has one of the Inner Circle’s most important jobs as Phil’s official handler. AJ introduced us to Phil, which he said is short for “Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary.”

Groundhogs typically live about eight years, but the Inner Circle claims that Phil is at least 138, thanks to the “Elixir of Life.” Every summer, the Inner Circle makes a Trek to Gobbler's Knob to feed Phil the magic elixir, which bestows him with longevity and youthful good looks.

There’s only enough elixir for Phil, though, and his wives – all of whom have been named Phyllis – have lived and died over the years.

When we met AJ, he was dressed in the Inner Circle’s game day uniform of a tux and top hat. Phil’s considered a dignitary, AJ explained, and the formal outfits respect that status. Roca also met with Club President Tom Dunkel – “Shingle Shaker” – who explained that he is the only member of the club able to understand Phil’s Groundhogese language. Every Groundhog Day, Tom is the one who translates Phil’s proclamation for the world.

About 10,000 people attend the event each year, Tom told us, a number that nearly doubled after the release of the 1993 movie “Groundhog Day.” Most hotel bookings in Punxsutawney and surrounding towns are snapped up the moment they become available a year in advance.

We met people who had traveled from as far as Alaska and Germany to attend the event, in addition to bachelorette parties, student groups, and people celebrating birthdays. Attendees kept telling us that “this is a bucket list item.”

Around 4 AM on the Big Day, we made our way to Gobbler’s Knob, where thousands of attendees were already waiting. Just before 7:30 AM, the Inner Circle began making its way through the crowd to a small stage, on which Phil was hiding in his stump.

Amidst fireworks and confetti, AJ pulled Phil from his stump and raised him high into the sky. Phil then told Tom whether he had seen his shadow, prompting Tom to turn to the crowd and translate the news to the world.

Last Friday, the same routine unfolded when Tom revealed that that Phil had not seen his shadow and thus expects an early spring in 2024. Yet Phil actually is worse than the average at predicting the weather: Studies have found that his predictions are correct only 36-39% of the time.

Other towns across North America celebrated the day with their own weather-predicting groundhogs – from Birmingham Bill to Staten Island Chuck to Shubenacadie Sam in Canada. Yet last year AJ told Roca: “They're simply imitators.”

“There’s only one true weather-prognosticating groundhog,” he said.

And his name is Punxsutawney Phil.

Reply to this email to let us know what you think!

ROCA WRAP
Person of the Week: Punxsutawney Phil

Everyday we take a deep dive into an interesting story, place, or person. Subscribers get full access.

On Friday, the world’s most famous groundhog did not see his shadow.

Groundhog Day has its roots in the ancient Christian tradition of Candlemas, which marks the conclusion of the Christmas-Epiphany season. Germans traditionally marked Candlemas (February 2) as "Badger Day.

According to folklore, if a badger emerged from its den and observed its shadow, a prolonged winter would follow; if not, spring would arrive early. German settlers in Pennsylvania adapted this tradition to their new environment, substituting the badger for a rodent native to the state: The groundhog.

They observed the first official Groundhog Day in the US in 1887 in the small town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, about 85 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

That year on February 2, Punxsutawney residents trekked to Gobbler's Knob, a small hill in the town, to watch a groundhog – Phil – emerge from his burrow. 137 years later, the annual pilgrimage continues – and Phil has become an international celebrity.

Last year, Roca visited Punxsutawney on the big day to learn more about Phil. We received a special invitation from Punxsutawney Groundhog Club Inner Circle – the group of 15 men responsible for carrying on the tradition and caring for Phil.

The Inner Circle is exclusive to Punxsutawney residents and taxpayers, and membership comes with a unique title, like “Thunder Conductor” or “DayBreaker.”

Roca met with AJ Derume – “Rainmaker” – who has one of the Inner Circle’s most important jobs as Phil’s official handler. AJ introduced us to Phil, which he said is short for “Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary.”

Groundhogs typically live about eight years, however the Inner Circle claims that Phil is at least 138, thanks to the “Elixir of Life.” Every summer, the Inner Circle makes a Trek to Gobbler's Knob to feed Phil the magic elixir, which bestows him with longevity and youthful good looks.

There’s only enough elixir for Phil, however, and his wives – all of whom have been named Phyllis – have lived and died over the years.

When we met AJ, he was dressed in the Inner Circle’s game day uniform of a tux and top hat. Phil’s considered a dignitary, AJ explained, and the formal outfits respect that status. Roca also met with Club President Tom Dunkel – “Shingle Shaker” – who explained that he is the only member of the club able to understand Phil’s Groundhogese language. Every Groundhog Day, Tom is the one who translates Phil’s proclamation for the world.

About 10,000 people attend the event each year, Tom told us, a number that nearly doubled after the release of the 1993 movie “Groundhog Day.”

The rest of this story is for subscribers only.

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COMMUNITY
Roca Reader Takes

Yesterday’s Poll:

Have you received a spam call in the last week?
Yes: 80%
No: 20%

This week’s discussion:

On Monday we asked: Is technology advancing too quickly? Who should set the pace?

ClĂ©m from Melbourne, Australia: “The fear that “adversaries might pull ahead” if tech is slowed down doesn’t really makes sense to me. Let’s say we’re talking about soft power here (though given Oppenheimer is quoted, I think the debate on technology used by anyone and everyone or by specialist/the army is different). So talking about soft power between countries, having the new Vision Pro or the latest social media might look shiny now, but I’m worried about the impact down the track. The country where new technology is first created is the main audience for these new creations as well as all other “developed” countries, given everyone is slowly isolating and spending more time by themselves or reading hateful or violent comments online, there won’t be anymore space for community, for sharing of ideas and common actions.”

Laurie from Ontario, Canada: “Personally I think AI can do wonderful things. The advances in medicine alone are amazing.  BUT, I think there should be more checks and balances in place to look at what the repercussions are of that option.  Just because we can doesn't me we should. You could keep a body alive for years but if the person in that body is gone or suffering then the body should surrendered. I think it should be advanced in areas like pollution reduction. Some answers may not be easy but AI could fix that too”

Dimitri from Nashville, Tennessee: “No one person can or will dictate the speed of technological innovation and implementation.  A government can attempt to slow it, but in reality, the motivation and willingness of individuals in a society will continue to develop and spread their ideas and technologies, and its the society's part to slowly or quickly adopt those ideas and technologies. It would be beneficial if the bigger players were up front about potential short and long term risks of the technologies as they discover them so that the society can make a better-informed decision about what they adopt.”

Julie from “a really small town in the Northeast Kansas Flint hills”: “The regulation of technology is very tricky and I do not think there is any existing governing body in the USA or globally that is able to regulate technology in a way that is representatives of general human kind's best interest around the world and not large corporations or people who have financially motivated recommendations. The other challenge is that companies publish information in a way that masks risks, misrepresent benefits or make it difficult to identify without being privvy to proprietary information- because after all, companies are trying to make a profit not educate the public. Perhaps a global ethics committee for Technology advancements to review emerging technologies, identify risks associated with the techs being created and marketed by companies.”

EDITOR’S NOTE
Final Thoughts

A HUGE number of you sent in thoughts about yesterday’s Roca Votes. We’re glad to see – and not surprised – how many of you are eager to engage in an actual debate. Respond to the readers above and let’s keep it going today!

—Max and Max